The HS2 fiasco has sparked a debate about the future of high-speed rail in the UK. Despite the initial plans for a comprehensive line connecting London to Manchester and Leeds, the project has been scaled back, leaving a truncated version that only reaches Birmingham by the late 2030s. This has raised questions about the strategic value of the remaining line and the potential consequences for the country's economic rebalancing efforts.
One of the key issues is the budget. The estimated cost of completing the line from London to Birmingham is around £60 billion, which is a significant amount of money. This has led to discussions about the potential benefits of completing the line further north, from Birmingham to Manchester Airport. This option would provide maximum benefit for the least cost, as it would avoid the need for expensive tunnels and verges, which were required for the London-Birmingham section.
The UK government is committed to the Northern Powerhouse Rail project, which uses HS2 legal powers and the route in central Manchester. This project aims to connect the North of England and the Midlands with London, but the current HS2 plans only go as far as Birmingham. The government wants to show that lessons have been learned from the overspecification and hasty handing out of contracts that plagued the initial HS2 project.
However, there are concerns about the impact of the truncated line on the existing West Coast Main Line (WCML). The WCML is already full, with up to 15 trains per hour, and is the busiest mixed-use line in Europe. The HS2 trains were designed for the straight HS2 lines and will not be able to tilt around the WCML's bends, resulting in slower speeds (110 mph) compared to the existing Avanti pendolinos (125 mph). This could lead to worse services beyond Birmingham, which is a real crisis in the making.
The author argues that the failure of HS2 might paradoxically mean the Western leg gets built in full. The government's commitment to the Northern Powerhouse Rail project and the potential cost savings of completing the line from Birmingham to Manchester Airport could make this a more viable option. Additionally, the UK government can learn from other nations that have successfully delivered high-speed lines, such as Japan, Spain, Morocco, and Uzbekistan, which have shown that it can be done cheaper and quicker.
In conclusion, the HS2 fiasco has raised important questions about the future of high-speed rail in the UK. The government must carefully consider the strategic value of the remaining line and the potential consequences for the country's economic rebalancing efforts. The decision to complete the line from Birmingham to Manchester Airport could be a more cost-effective and strategic option, but it will require careful planning and consideration of the existing infrastructure.
